Trump’s ceasefire isn’t the endgame—It’s the opening move

When President Trump ordered a precision strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, followed by an unexpected ceasefire, the world took notice. But the impact of the move has only just begun. The ceasefire may be a gesture of restraint, but the underlying strategy signals something deeper.

This was never about just Iran. The message was directed at an entire network of adversaries. The axis that links Tehran, Moscow, Beijing, and Pyongyang is not built on trust—it’s built on opportunity. In one strike, Trump disrupted that rhythm. And in one announcement, he introduced a calculated pause. Yet, as any strategist knows, stillness is not stability.

Iran, temporarily weakened by the damage, will likely regroup and retool its regional activities through its proxy groups—Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen. These actors are used to playing the long game. A ceasefire won’t change that.

The real significance of the strike lies in what it reveals about U.S. posture. Trump is resetting expectations—not just for adversaries, but for allies. He is making it clear that the U.S. is willing to use force but not get trapped. This is about disruption, not domination.

There’s also an effect in the markets and in military planning rooms across the world. Oil prices spiked. Gulf States reviewed their security protocols. European diplomats held emergency consultations. Even China responded—cautiously but attentively.

To understand this moment, we must recognise the administration’s strategic goal: a world that is less dependent on American military presence and more shaped by American unpredictability. That means using bold actions to create time for deals, deterrence, or diplomatic leverage. It also means refusing to be predictable.

Critics argue this is dangerous—high-risk diplomacy with little institutional backing. That’s not wrong. But it’s also not new. Nixon called it the Madman Theory. Trump is using it with a 21st-century twist: fast execution, instant messaging, and no appetite for prolonged war.

Yet Trump’s message cannot be judged solely on missiles and headlines. The deeper challenge is converting tactical advantage into long-term stability. That will require coordination with regional allies, investment in strategic communication, and real engagement with Congress.

There’s also the issue of Africa and the Global South. These regions are watching, measuring, and learning. Many have growing economic ties with China and quiet diplomatic relations with Iran. They want to know: is this America reasserting leadership or simply asserting chaos?

For countries that rely on Gulf stability for trade, investment, and migrant labour. A future where the U.S. might act forcefully, then withdraw, leaves local players guessing about how to hedge their bets.

It’s also important to recognise that while adversaries may appear weak today, they are also adapting. Iran’s cyber capabilities remain intact. China’s maritime presence is expanding. Russia thrives in uncertainty. None are out of the game—they are just shifting their approach.

In the coming weeks, Trump will need to show that the ceasefire is not just a timeout but part of a broader recalibration. That includes addressing global energy stability, strengthening alliances, and communicating the endgame—something often missing from American military moves.

Above all, the administration must avoid complacency. A well-timed strike and a sudden ceasefire make for great optics. But lasting strategic outcomes depend on what comes next. If this was an opening move, what is the middle game? What’s the checkmate scenario?

The message to the world cannot be one of improvisation. It must be one of a clear strategy backed by preparation, alliances, and policy coherence.

The Middle East remains a fragile region where actors manoeuvre with deep memory and greater patience than Washington often realises. Trump has made his move. Now comes the harder part: proving that power can also preserve, not just provoke.

Dr Brian O’Reuben is the Executive Chairman of the Sixteenth Council and Special Envoy on European Transformation and Global Coherence.