A future with or without oil
If we are to make an impact, our first task is to resolve the precarious ambiguities in our ecosystem—especially in the prudent management of our financial resources and economic choices in a renewed commitment to the elimination of waste and corruption. Singapore is a great and worthy example of a nation that has no oil at all. Yet it is thriving.
The Scandinavian countries, especially Norway, have oil, but they have vaccinated themselves against the “oil curse.” They prefer to channel their earnings from oil into a sovereign wealth fund for future generations. It is their solid insurance against being accused of squandering their riches (derived from oil) by future generations.
Currently, Norway has stashed away. Others in the league of sovereign wealth funds are as follows:
US $
Sovereign Funds of China: 1.3 trillion
Pakistan Sovereign Wealth Fund: 8.06 billion
Turkey Wealth Fund 318 billion
Maharlika Wealth Fund: 2.26 billion
Sovereign Fund of Brazil 14.2 billion
National Wealth Fund, United Kingdom 36.9 billion
Russian National Wealth Fund: 39 billion
Nigeria’s Sovereign Wealth Fund is a paltry N4.42 trillion (roughly US $2.95 billion).
The convener has cajoled us into believing that the gods are smiling on us, but harsh reality suggests that neither the old nor the young can rely on their sense of entitlement as the vaccine against the next variant of COVID-19 or whatever pandemic erupts.
Today’s event, regardless of the overwhelming glamour and glitter, should not only rekindle our hope, but also serve as a catalyst. The last time I checked our leading intellectuals, the indomitable technocrats and rugged professionals (save for a few) had given up. That is lethal. It is indeed a sure recipe for disaster and ultimate extinguishment/extinction.
We no longer have the luxury of a waiting period or room for vacillation. The challenge before us is the conquest of debilitating fear, festering anger, and traumatic frustration bordering on PTSD (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder).
For several decades our nation has been on a roller-coaster ride of unrealistic expectations. Now, we have no seat belts. To quote the late American lawyer Ralph Nader, we are “UNSAFE AT ANY SPEED.”
Perhaps we need to backtrack to how our oil journey commenced with the discovery of oil at Oloibiri (now Bayelsa State) in commercial quantities by Shell D’Arcy in 1956. But the real journey commenced almost twenty years before. Shell drilled many holes that turned out to be dry before striking it rich. Since then Nigeria slowly developed a problem with its oil. At first, the impact of oil was not profoundly manifest. The economy was fundamentally anchored on agriculture—groundnuts and cotton from the Northern Region, palm oil from the Eastern Region, and cocoa from the Western Region (plus rubber from the Midwestern Region). I would even argue that even now, the oil sector has not ever been properly integrated with the Nigerian economy. It just grew and prospered (or declined) at a tangent—instead of being the catalyst for self-evident economic development, as has been the case with what was previously desert in the UAE (United Arab Republic), Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, etc.
1966 Coup:
“On 15 January 1966, rebellious soldiers led by Kaduna Nzeogwu and 4 others carried out a military putsch, killing 22 people, including the Prime Minister of
Nigeria, many senior politicians, senior army officers and their wives, and sentinels on protective duty. The coup plotters attacked the cities of Kaduna, Ibadan, and Lagos while also blockading the Niger and Benue Rivers within a two-day timespan before being overcome by loyalist forces.
Although the coup was considered a failure, it still resulted in a change from an elected government to a military government, albeit led by a different set of senior officers. It also marked the start of a succession of military coups in Nigeria.”
If we want to change our future without oil, we are entitled to draw a lesson from Don Zimmer, who delivered a nugget:
“What you lack in talent can be made up with desire, hustle, and giving 110 percent all the time.”
Besides, we have to recognise and acknowledge the new hierarchy of needs and paradigm shift. Nigeria is actually a GAS country rather than an epileptic oil-producing country. In oil our ranking is 10th globally, and in gas we are ranked number 9.
The Nigerian Liquefied Natural Gas Limited [NLNG] has proved to be a resilient flagship and robust business model.
Our next destination is the confessional box, where we have to admit our long list of missed opportunities and wrong choices galore.
Thankfully, this time around we would be willing to subscribe to rigorous risk assessment and meticulous risk management.
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