Top 5 states projected to experience floods in 2025

Niger State where over 500 people have been displaced and more than 200 people killed due to severe flooding that occured recently, might not be the only state that will experience devastating floods in 2025.

In April, the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) forecasted that more than 30 states in Africa’s most populous nation would experience destructive flooding at different months in 2025.

These projections exacerbate the rising need for strict climate change measures, renovation of the country’s over 200 dams, as well as calls for urgent adoption of smart agricultural practices across the country.

“Flood in Nigeria is a recurring disaster with severe social, economic, and environmental consequences. While natural factors such as heavy rainfall and river overflow contribute to the problem, human activities like poor urban planning, deforestation, and waste disposal worsen the situation,” the NIHSA report explained.

It highlighted a multifaceted approach as the solution to addressing floods, including improved infrastructure, better forecasting, and stronger policies.

In no particular order, BusinessDay looks at 5 of these states that fall within high and moderate risk of floods at different months of 2025 as projected by the NIHSA.

Abia

Abia State has been projected by the NIHSA and the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) to be a high-risk flood state.

In 2023, the NIHSA identified Abia among 32 states at high risk of flooding, with predictions of significant impact on population, agriculture, and infrastructure, especially between April and November.

This prediction went on to become reality, displaced several people, destroyed farmlands, and left many farmers without jobs.

Read also: Nigeria sees flooding in 80% of states as death yoll nears 200

Home to food crops like palm oil and cassava, the ‘God’s Own State’ again suffered from flooding in 2024. This led to the displacement of over 22,000 people, according to a report by NEMA.

However, in 2025, the NIHSA projects that between July and September, two local government areas and two communities in the state will be affected by floods.

Adamawa

Over the past four years, Adamawa have suffered ravaging floods that have put over 6 million people at risk.

In 2023, the state experienced relentless rainfall, which, combined with further releases from the Lagdo Dam, led to severe flooding.

This resulted in multiple deaths and displaced over 100,000 people. A total of 153 communities were submerged, with widespread destruction of homes, farmlands, and infrastructure.

Now, in 2025, the ‘Land of Beauty’ state is again among the states projected to face flooding across five local government areas and five communities.

Akwa Ibom

The Land of Promise state was part of the 2022 ravaging flood that wiped out hectares of farmland across the country.

Flooding continued in 2023, driven by heavy rainfall, poor drainage, and blocked waterways, especially in urban centres and rural communities along rural banks.

According to the NIHSA, Akwa Ibom is again at risk of experiencing floods in 2025. The agency calls for urgent intervention to abate the looming flood forecasted to attack nine local government areas and 15 communities.

Read also: Nigeria’s flood crisis: Tragedy, response, and the way forward

Bauchi

In 2022, Bauchi State experienced one of its most devastating floods. The state recorded about 29 deaths, and 2,934 people were affected across 250 locations in all 20 local government areas, according to the Centre for Investigative Journalism.

Climate change, heavy rainfall, and poor drainage have been noted to be the major drivers of floods in the state.

The NIHSA has said the state is on the list of states to face moderate flooding that is likely to affect six local governments and 20 communities.

Bayelsa

At least 1.3 million people were displaced, and more than 300 communities were submerged in Bayelsa State in 2022 due to the 2022 Lagdo dam flooding.

The state of ‘Truth, Service & Justice’ has been projected by the NIHSA to be at high risk of flooding across six local governments and 99 communities in 2025.

What the projections mean for Nigeria

Nigeria is an agricultural nation with many states engaged in rural farming. Studies have shown that flooding disrupts food production, skyrockets food prices and leaves the population hungry.

Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi and Bayelsa are all key players in the production of different consumable and cash crops. They include oil palm, cassava, cotton, yam, and rice, amongst others.

Therefore, without urgent intervention in the states, these crops are at risk of being wiped away by floods — a situation that will dampen production and alter the country’s food security vision.

It will also cost the country money that would be spent on repairing broken bridges and roads.