Can Trump’s tariffs be the wake-up call AfCFTA needs?

Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff has flipped the global trade landscape towards more protectionist trade policy blocs, with potential 60 percent tariffs on Chinese goods and 10 percent across all U.S. imports. In the last two months, Trump has changed his tariff policies more often than some of us change our garments. The velocity of tariff changes has likely caused a few nervous breakdowns in the accounts departments of American companies trading goods with their major trading partners. Also touted as “reciprocal tariff”, it is aimed, surprisingly, at a manufacturing renaissance in the US with American sweatshops of the 19th century rising again and displacing imports from Asia or Africa.

“As global trade corridors narrow, AfCFTA offers a rare chance for Africa to strengthen internal markets, industrialise, and cushion itself from external shocks—if leaders act swiftly to make the agreement truly operational and impactful.”

So far, the African continent has been largely unaffected. These moves threaten to disrupt global supply chains, escalate trade tensions, and trigger retaliatory measures—creating shockwaves across the global economy. For Africa, the implications are significant. With the continent accounting for just 3 percent of global trade and heavily reliant on external partners, such volatility underscores the urgency of self-reliance. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which promises to unify a market of 1.4 billion people and boost intra-African trade by 52.3 percent, remains sluggish in implementation. Could Trump’s tariff war be the very wake-up call Africa needs? As global trade corridors narrow, AfCFTA offers a rare chance for Africa to strengthen internal markets, industrialise, and cushion itself from external shocks—if leaders act swiftly to make the agreement truly operational and impactful.

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Reciprocal tariff or escalated tension?

On Wednesday, April 2nd, the U.S. President announced the imposition of “reciprocal tariffs” on all countries—except Canada and Mexico, which already face duties—declaring it “a matter of national emergency”. Unlike traditional tariffs, these will be calculated to offset bilateral trade deficits, factoring in both tariff and non-tariff barriers. While industry players initially expected differentiated rates per product, the Trump administration opted for a simplified, uniform tariff per country. The formula: each country’s trade deficit with the U.S., divided by its exports to the U.S., then halved. This yields country-specific flat tariffs ranging from 10 percent to 49 percent, applied to all goods. While exemptions were made for certain items, this sweeping policy shift sent shivers down the spine of many economies.

These tariffs are framed as tools to revive American manufacturing, reduce trade deficits, and protect U.S. jobs, but they risk triggering a global trade backlash. Since April 1, 2025, global stock markets have sharply declined following Trump’s tariff announcement. Major indices—FTSE 100, S&P 500, DAX, and Nikkei—each fell around 10–15 percent, with the DAX and Nikkei showing the steepest drops. Investor confidence appears shaken by fears of escalating global trade tensions.

This return to protectionism challenges the foundations of the global free trade system, established under the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Historically, similar moves have led to trade wars, inflation, and reduced economic growth. For example, during Trump’s first term, tariffs on steel, aluminium, and Chinese goods led to retaliatory measures from the EU, Canada, and China, with U.S. industries like agriculture and automotive taking major hits.

Analysts now warn of renewed global supply chain disruptions, rising costs for consumers, and weakened investor confidence. Exemptions apply to goods already listed under relevant laws (steel, aluminium, autos) and select items like copper, semiconductors, energy and related products, and pharmaceuticals. U.S. content is excluded if it makes up 20%+ of product value and origin can be proven through U.S. Customs verification.

Emerging markets—especially those reliant on U.S. and Chinese trade—face increased vulnerability. In this context, Trump’s tariffs risk reversing decades of trade liberalisation and offer a stark reminder of the fragile interdependence of the modern global economy.

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Who does the US have a trade deficit with in Africa?

The U.S. currently runs significant trade deficits with Africa’s leading commodity exporters—particularly South Africa, Nigeria, Algeria, and Angola. South Africa’s exports to the U.S. are dominated by precious metals, diamonds, jewellery, and platinum, while the others primarily export crude oil. Despite these commodities being vital to U.S. industries, the Trump administration appears willing to impose tariffs, even if it means disrupting its own supply chains.

An investigation into copper imports is already underway, triggering a price surge as buyers stockpile in anticipation of potential duties. Although a lower tariff on Canadian oil was considered, it was ultimately dropped—signalling unpredictability in tariff decisions.

For oil-exporting nations, U.S. tariffs may have a limited impact, as global demand allows them to redirect supplies. However, for South Africa, the timing couldn’t be worse. With a $9 billion trade surplus and increasing political scrutiny, the threat of AGOA exclusion and 10 percent tariffs looms large.

By contrast, Egypt and Morocco, both running trade deficits with the U.S., may escape penalties. In fact, over half of African countries could argue similar positions, potentially sparing them from the tariff fallout—at least for now.

The United States has relatively limited trade with Africa, importing just $39 billion worth of goods from the continent in 2024—equivalent to what it imports from Mexico or Canada in just over a month. Daily U.S. imports from either country exceed annual imports from 40 African nations. South Africa and, to a lesser extent, Nigeria are the key outliers, accounting for more than half of total U.S. imports from Africa. Fortunately, most African nations are not heavily dependent on the U.S. either—over half of them send 2 percent or less of their total exports to the American market.

Following close behind in the line of potential targets are Nigeria, Algeria, and Angola. On the flip side, Egypt and Morocco—long considered U.S. allies—run trade deficits with America, making them less likely to face punitive tariffs. In fact, more than half of African nations maintain trade deficits with the U.S., offering them a stronger case for exemption. If the U.S. spares any African countries in this new wave of protectionism, it will likely be those running deficits.

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What must Africa do?

Africa currently accounts for just 3 percent of global trade, a reflection of its marginal role in the international economic system. The continent’s heavy reliance on commodity exports exposes it to external shocks, from fluctuating prices to tariff wars—making its economies vulnerable. This underscores the urgency of boosting intra-African trade as a buffer against global volatility.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) was conceived as a bold step to integrate Africa’s markets, unlock economies of scale, and foster regional value chains. While progress has been made—most notably in ratifications and institutional frameworks—implementation gaps, infrastructure deficits, and sluggish adoption have slowed momentum.

However, Trump’s 2025 “Liberation Day” tariffs could prove a pivotal moment. As global trade realigns, Africa has an opportunity to strengthen regional supply chains, reduce dependency on traditional partners, and accelerate industrialisation.

To seize this moment, African nations must commit to policy reforms, invest in infrastructure, and demonstrate political will. Strengthened institutions, effective dispute mechanisms, and harmonised trade rules are essential. Equally, private sector involvement and digital trade innovations will be critical to making AfCFTA a tool for resilience and prosperity.