Sustaining Africa’s economic resilience hinges on intra-trade, local investments, new partnerships – Kale, MD/Group Chief Economist, Afreximbank

A key takeaway from Afreximbank’s 2025 Annual Meetings, held Last week in Abuja, is the growing recognition of Africa’s resilience amid global shocks. However, Yemi Kale, Afreximbank’s Managing Director (Research & International Cooperation) and Group Chief Economist, emphasises that resilience alone is insufficient, and highlights the urgent need to boost intra-African trade, mobilise local capital, and forge new partnerships to drive sustainable growth. At Afreximbank, Kale oversees research and international cooperation. He was formerly Chief Economist and Head of Research at KPMG West Africa and served as Nigeria’s Statistician-General/CEO of the National Bureau of Statistics. He held roles at Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch before leading research at Stanbic IBTC. Kale has advised finance and planning ministers and served on key national and international economic policy bodies. He holds a B.Sc. in Economics (First Class) from Addis Ababa University; M.Sc. (distinction) and a Ph.D. from the London School of Economics. He is an alumnus of Harvard Kennedy School’s leadership program. Shortly after the meetings, Onyinye Nwachukwu, BusinessDay’s Abuja Bureau Chief, held an exclusive interview with Kale to discuss the key insights and the bank’s strategic direction. Except…

“African countries need to collaborate more, communicate more, invest more, and trade more with one another.”

First of all, could you provide a summary of this year’s Afreximbank Annual Meetings held under the theme ‘Building the Future on Decades of Resilience’? Why was this theme chosen, and what were the key takeaways from the event?

I think the annual meetings went very well, just as we anticipated. We had been planning for months—the process began as early as December, and the theme was chosen back in November. As you know, once a theme is selected, it needs to be broken down into sub-themes, speakers who complement each other have to be identified, and everything arranged in the right order. This takes a lot of detailed work.

Of course, beyond the technical planning, there are logistics and other practical considerations. When my team and I sat down to decide on the theme, there were three main reasons guiding our choice. One important reason is that in life, it’s essential to take stock—to review past performance and plan for the future. Just like companies do at their Annual General Meetings, assessing the previous year and setting goals for the next, we aimed to take a broad look at Afreximbank’s journey since its inception.

There were two key reasons for this focus. First, this year marks the appointment of a new president of the bank. So, it was an opportunity not only to reflect on the achievements during Professor Oramah’s 10-year tenure but also to review the bank’s accomplishments over its 33 years of existence. Secondly, it was about setting a clear path forward—planning the route for the next 10 to 30 years as leadership transitions. That’s why this theme was chosen: to mark the end of an era, celebrate what Afreximbank has achieved so far, and look ahead to the future as we prepare for the next chapter.

Looking back over the past 30 years, it’s remarkable to see how far the bank has come and the challenges it has overcome. In its early days, the bank faced shareholder disputes, and many doubted it would survive even a year. Yet, 33 years later, Afreximbank stands stronger than ever. Throughout its history, the bank has navigated numerous global crises that threatened its ability to fulfil its mandate—but it endured.
Because of all these experiences, we recognised the importance of reflecting on the lessons learnt—both the successes and the setbacks. These insights are crucial as we plan for the next 10, 20, and 30 years, ensuring the bank’s continued growth and sustainability. That was the core reason behind choosing this theme.

One of the main takeaways is that Africa’s resilience is increasingly recognised. However, resilience alone is not enough. The central bank and our flagship reports have echoed this sentiment. We must ensure that this resilience isn’t just due to luck or because Africa remains less integrated into the global market. Instead, we need to build strong structures and systems that guarantee true resilience when the next global crisis hits—not simply because we’re a small player, but because we have a robust industrial base, well-educated people in meaningful jobs, and the capacity to produce goods for both intra-continental and global markets.

The second key takeaway is the growing recognition that we can no longer rely solely on our traditional partners. Many African countries remain closely tied to their former colonial powers for trade and investment. However, time and again, during crises, these partners pull back, leaving us to bear the consequences—not because we caused the problem, but simply because of their challenges. For example, during the last global crisis, African consumers still demanded goods and services, but because many industries rely on imported raw materials, countries needed dollars to import them. This meant converting local currencies, like the Naira, into dollars before production and trade could continue—highlighting the vulnerability of depending heavily on external partners for critical inputs. If I can’t access dollars because the sources we rely on are pulling their capital out, the entire country—or even the continent—suffers. This isn’t due to a lack of domestic demand or internal problems, but simply because businesses can’t produce enough without the necessary dollars to import raw materials.

This situation causes high inflation, which directly affects African consumers. That’s why the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) was created—to eliminate the need for dollars in intra-African trade. For example, if I want to buy goods from Ghana, I don’t have to convert my Naira into dollars first; I can convert it directly into Ghanaian cedis. Whether dollars are available or not, whether foreign investment flows in or out, it doesn’t matter; I can still trade smoothly within the continent without relying on the dollar. These are the kinds of challenges we’ve faced over the years. But if you listened to that conference, the message was clear: now is the time for African countries to trade more with each other and invest more within the continent. Instead of always looking to Europe or the US for foreign direct investment, we need to focus on attracting FDI from other African countries.

We are currently working on a report about African direct investment to encourage this shift. The goal is to trade more and invest more within Africa, treating the continent as one large, unified market. Just like if I’m in Lagos and want to sell something to someone in Abuja—I don’t need dollars, and there are no complicated rules or protocols to follow. If we treat Africa as one integrated market—removing restrictions between countries so that someone in Senegal can trade as easily with someone in Nigeria as a Lagos-based seller does with a buyer in Abuja—it will significantly improve economic activity across the continent. One key takeaway from the Annual Meetings was the growing understanding among Africans worldwide, including those in the Caribbean, that our future must be built by ourselves. We cannot rely on external sources to develop us because they are not interested in our growth. African countries need to collaborate more, communicate more, invest more, and trade more with one another.

Afreximbank launched two flagship publications during the meetings—the African Trade and Economic Outlook 2025 and the Africa Trade Report 2025. Could you summarise the key findings of these reports and explain what they reveal about the current state and future trajectory of Africa’s trade and economic landscape?

Those were two of Afreximbank flagship reports: the second edition of the Economic Outlook Report and around the 11th edition of the Trade Report. This year, like the past few years, has been extremely challenging for the global economy. Since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, the world has faced four major shocks between 2020 and 2024—an unusually high number. These shocks have impacted the entire globe, including Africa. However, what our report highlights is that despite these challenges, Africa demonstrated remarkable resilience throughout this period. Despite the shocks and the resulting macroeconomic instability, Africa performed better than many other regions in the world. As I mentioned earlier, there’s a growing recognition of the need for African countries to communicate and trade more with each other. Our report found that intra-African trade has improved significantly—from around 7 percent about ten years ago to approximately 15 percent today.

This progress has occurred despite the global turmoil. In fact, many African countries now trade more with their continental neighbours than with countries outside Africa. This momentum is partly driven by the introduction of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and various platforms designed to help Africans better understand and access each other’s products. In his closing speech, Professor Oramah highlighted an interesting example: sometimes one African country imports goods from thousands of kilometres away, even though the same product is made just next door—without realising it. For instance, a buyer might travel all the way to China to purchase rubber, even though that rubber is produced by a neighbouring country, with China sourcing the same product from that neighbour. We often don’t fully understand what’s happening within our own continent. Perhaps this is because of lingering ties to the colonial era or language barriers. Yet, many of the products we import from outside Africa are actually produced by African countries themselves. It’s strange that one country would import goods only to sell them back to us—goods that come from our own African neighbours. This lack of information has created unnecessary confusion, but now we’re addressing it. We’re communicating and trading more within the continent.

Regarding the outlook, many people are focused on escalating trade tensions, tariffs, and ongoing conflicts worldwide, fearing a global collapse. However, we believe the direct impact on Africa will be minimal. While there will be some challenges, especially in the short term, in the medium to long term, Africa will remain resilient and overcome these obstacles. This resilience is partly because Africa’s integration into the global economy is still limited—for example, only about 5 percent of Africa’s exports go to the US, one of the countries involved in these trade disputes. Africa already trades with itself about three times more than it does with the US. In fact, the share of intra-African trade is roughly comparable to its trade with China. So even if trade tensions arise between China and the US, while there might be some impact, it would not be as significant for Africa.

The reports also highlight a clear realisation: for Africa to grow and develop faster, it must sustain this momentum—trading more within the continent and removing barriers that restrict the movement of people, goods, and services. This is exactly why the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) was established. Although there are still many bottlenecks in implementation, they are gradually being addressed. If this momentum continues, Africa will reach a point of greater self-sufficiency. The truth is, the rest of the world can’t do without Africa. We are truly a solutions hub for the global economy. Some even argue that Africa’s potential has been deliberately under-leveraged because understanding our strength might not align with the interests of some other countries. Africa is rich in resources critical to the world’s production needs. For example, 70 to 80 percent of the world’s cobalt supply comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Cobalt is essential in manufacturing many products—from aeroplanes to iPhones. If the DRC were to restrict cobalt exports, it would severely disrupt these industries worldwide.

So, Africa is a major solutions hub—rich in raw materials critical for addressing climate change, electric vehicles, and more. The challenge has been our inability to come together with a unified African plan and work as a team. Unfortunately, many external forces have been adept at dividing us. When we collectively agree on something, they often meet with one country to break the agreement and scatter the unity. That’s why it’s crucial for us to stay firm, set clear boundaries, and speak with one African voice. This is also why securing a seat at the G20—highlighted in the report—is more than just a chance to attend meetings or take photos with powerful countries. It’s a platform we must use to amplify our collective voice and push a unified continental agenda, not fragmented national interests.

Africa needs a shared agenda that all countries commit to and champion together. The global landscape is now divided into three blocs: the Western bloc, the Eastern bloc, and Africa, which has the unique position to engage with both. This gives us a strategic advantage. The West has to engage with Africa because they’re no longer talking directly with the East, and vice versa. This puts us in a position to influence and shape outcomes. However, if we remain divided, the world powers will simply engage with individual countries of their choice, leaving Africa weaker as a whole. That’s why coordinated continental action is essential. These are some of the key takeaways from the report: Africa is performing better than expected, and we are optimistic about the continent’s future. We recommend continued unity and collaboration to sustain and build on this progress.

The Outlook report presents projections for Africa’s macroeconomic performance in 2025. What are the main growth drivers identified, and how might external factors such as global interest rates, commodity prices, and geopolitical developments impact these projections?

First, our growth outlook for Africa is set at 4%, while the IMF’s latest projection is slightly lower at 3.8%. The difference is minimal—just that we’re a bit more optimistic. Essentially, whether you go by the IMF or our forecast, the growth expectation is roughly the same. The IMF’s 3.8% projection matches its estimate from last year, indicating that despite all the global challenges, Africa is expected to maintain a steady growth pace. We, however, believe the situation will improve slightly, but either way, the consensus is there’s growth ahead. The first key driver behind this optimism is increased domestic consumption, which is closely linked to the gradual reduction in inflation. As inflation eases across the continent, people’s purchasing power strengthens, enabling them to spend more. Although inflation remains relatively high, it’s trending downward, and this improvement is expected to boost domestic demand.
The second driver is the rise in intra-African trade, which helps shield the continent from global economic shocks. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and conflicts around the world have, in some cases, benefited certain African countries. For example, gold prices have surged due to the heightened demand for safe-haven assets, benefiting major gold producers like Ghana. Other countries such as Mali and Tanzania have also gained from this spike in gold prices.

There’s a possibility that the crisis between Iran and Palestine, added to the one in Ukraine and Russia and all the other places where everything is going wrong, will lead to an increase, a spike in oil prices like we’ve seen. Of course, countries like Nigeria, Libya, and Angola will benefit. Also, African countries that are input providers for the rest of the world will benefit from supply chain disruptions. So that’s higher commodity prices, increased trading activities and investment activities within African countries, and then generally improving macroeconomic fundamentals compared to previous years.

Like you mentioned, the biggest risk to those forecasts is related to higher interest rates as it relates to their debt. African countries are still carrying a lot of debt, which is priced in interest rates tied to the US dollar and other currencies. And of course, if in all we are seeing, oil prices or anything else go up, it pushes up prices in the US, and then the US is compelled to increase interest rates. Therefore, the ability to repay those loans becomes a problem. So the biggest risk is that interest rates might be increased in more advanced countries in response to the expected increase in inflation from the escalating trade and worsening geopolitical environment.

Almost all African countries carry heavy debt burdens, which is the major risk to the outlook. This is closely linked to other challenges such as exchange rate instability, where local currencies begin to depreciate. Additionally, there’s a slowdown in foreign direct investment, as non-African investors may start withdrawing their capital.

So, the two main risks to the outlook are exchange rate instability and the inability to service debt if interest rates rise sharply. Furthermore, escalating geopolitical tensions are not only affecting advanced economies but also many African countries themselves. Several nations face internal conflicts or regional disputes. Countries like Nigeria, Congo, and Sudan are dealing with security challenges and unrest, and we’ve seen incidents in places like Kenya. If these tensions escalate, they could seriously undermine the optimistic outlook.

To what extent is the ongoing insecurity in the Sahel region a concern for the Bank, and how is it influencing your operations or investment outlook in the area?

Not directly. There is always some concern when unrest occurs in any country, even if our direct exposure to that specific country is limited. Issues in one region can sometimes have ripple effects elsewhere. So yes, there is some risk coming from that region, but for now, it hasn’t started to impact our portfolios. Unless the situation significantly worsens and escalates, we don’t expect it to become a major problem. Moreover, given how diversified our portfolios are, while challenges could arise if the unrest intensifies, it is unlikely to be enough to derail the bank’s overall trajectory—neither in the short, medium, nor long term.

In the Africa Trade Report 2025, intra-African trade continues to take centre stage, especially under the AfCFTA framework. Which sectors or regions are emerging as the most dynamic, and what structural issues still need to be addressed to unlock full potential?

It’s difficult to generalise by sector because each country focuses on the sectors where it has a comparative advantage, and that’s what they will prioritise. However, looking at regions makes it a bit easier to assess. For example, East Africa is performing very well in implementing the AfCFTA, although they still face some bottlenecks. Compared to other regions, they have fewer challenges with AfCFTA implementation. North Africa is also doing very well, largely because they were already trading actively among themselves before. In terms of intra-African trade and the progress in removing trade and non-trade barriers, East Africa, North Africa, and then West Africa are the leading regions on the continent.

One theme that emerged strongly during this meeting is the growing call to rethink trade finance, particularly in light of expanding intra-regional and South-South trade. What is your perspective on these developments, and how should trade finance evolve to support them?

I agree. Like I mentioned at the beginning of this interview, traditional relationships and patterns are no longer working for us. We need to look inwards, more South-South, create new trading partners, and look at the Middle East and the Asian region. Let’s start building more relationships with them. Let’s start trading more because our systems are much similar; they are friendlier countries. They don’t impose the same level of restrictive rules before we can trade with them. China, for example, just removed all tariff barriers against African countries. That’s the way the continent should go. We need to forge new relationships, new partnerships, and new trade arrangements. The old ones don’t work anymore; they work against us, actually. Not only that they don’t work; they work against us – the rating agencies – the way things are done. It’s one of the reasons why Africa has not moved as quickly as it should. I actually agree with those sentiments – we need to trade more with Africa and South-South countries because we have more similarities. We have similar challenges and obstacles. We have more in common from an economic, cultural, and social perspective. Doing that also would help to remove the dependence on Northern countries and would help diversify again our overall portfolio, making it easier for us to overcome shocks when they come because they are always going to come.

Both reports highlight the growing role of African resilience amidst global volatility. How is Afreximbank supporting member states to navigate ongoing global challenges such as high debt burdens, climate change, and geopolitical tensions?

One of the biggest challenges global crises create is the withdrawal of capital from traditional sources. When this happens, African multilateral financial institutions like Afreximbank step in to fill the gap. For example, if Ghana used to receive five billion dollars in funding from UNICEF, USAID, or another foreign partner, and due to a global crisis that funding is withdrawn, it becomes the responsibility of institutions like Afreximbank to provide that financing so the country can continue operating despite the global disruptions. This role is a major reason why Africa has remained resilient. Whenever capital is pulled out and an economy is at risk of collapse, Afreximbank or similar institutions step in to plug the financing gap—that’s precisely what they were created to do. For instance, Afreximbank has a fund for export development that invests equity in African businesses. Through their involvement in technical capacity funding, they support businesses to grow from micro to small, medium, and large scale. Additionally, Afreximbank works to close the information gap to further strengthen African trade and investment.

There is a platform called MANSA, Afreximbank’s digital KYC system, designed to validate businesses across African countries. For example, if I want to buy from or sell to someone in Cameroon, I can use the MANSA platform to ensure that the person I’m dealing with is trustworthy and not a fraudster because thorough due diligence has already been conducted. These kinds of concerns have often been barriers to intra-African trade. But now, with enhanced research capabilities, we can help countries across Africa understand each other’s strengths—what products they produce, who the reliable players are, and so on. Before looking outside the continent, you can access Afreximbank’s platform to find detailed reports and verified information. For instance, if you’re searching for manganese suppliers in Africa, you can go to MANSA, find the authenticated producers, and directly connect with them. Once a transaction is complete, there’s no need to search for dollars — you simply use the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) to exchange your currencies directly. This practical approach challenges the old system we’ve been stuck with for years, which often didn’t serve our best interests.

Initiatives like this are also central to events such as the Intra-African Trade Fair happening in Algiers this September. This fair brings together African businesses, investors, and innovators—all in one place—to connect and collaborate. It’s not just a talk shop; it’s a space where thousands of African entrepreneurs can meet face-to-face, explore opportunities, and build real partnerships. For example, someone might say, “You produce electronics? I need electronics—let’s sit down, sign a deal, and start working together.” These are the kinds of connections that help close the gaps in Africa’s internal trade. Platforms like these are key tools Afreximbank uses to unite stakeholders, foster mutual understanding, and create opportunities for deals and partnerships. This approach directly tackles the information gaps that have long hindered intra-African commerce.

I have to mention AfPAY, a foreign currency payment platform that has already processed significant transactions. Many people might recognise the challenge when transferring money internationally—when filling out the form, you have to provide details of correspondent banks. This means relying on foreign banks as intermediaries to complete the transfer. AfPAY removes that dependency. If one of these correspondent banks decides to pull back and stop providing their services, it leaves African countries stuck and powerless. AfPAY empowers us by bypassing these intermediaries, giving African countries greater control over their own foreign currency payments. It is providing an African alternative when correspondent banking services are denied. If foreign banks won’t give you access to these services, AfPAY steps in and offers the same support, helping us break free from the chains that have kept us dependent on external systems. No matter the conflicts or issues happening elsewhere, we don’t have to be caught up in them. We need to keep growing and developing.

On climate change, Africa is the least responsible for causing damage but suffers the most from its effects. Unlike developed countries, we still need to grow and industrialise. So, while some may call for scaling back industrialisation for the sake of the climate, Africa cannot afford to do that—we’re still on the path to industrial development, and the major contributors to climate change are elsewhere. That’s why implementing the AfCFTA (African Continental Free Trade Area) is also a way we contribute to fighting climate change. Instead of shipping goods all the way to Asia—burning more fuel and increasing emissions—trading more within Africa, like with neighbouring countries such as Ghana, reduces transportation distances and environmental impact. There’s a clear synergy between our climate strategy and economic growth: African countries must collaborate and do more business with each other to promote sustainable development and reduce emissions.

Could you elaborate on the newly launched PAPSS card and how it fits into the broader effort to improve access to affordable and reliable trade finance—especially for African SMEs, which continue to face significant barriers? Additionally, what new instruments, facilities, or partnerships is Afreximbank introducing in 2025 to help close this financing gap?

Finance gap refers to the shortfall between the funding available to African banks or multilateral institutions and the actual financial needs of African countries. When we talk about a $100 to $120 billion finance gap, it means that African countries have the potential and demand for that amount, but the financial institutions do not have enough resources to provide it. The key is to empower and strengthen African multilateral financial institutions, as highlighted in the recommendations from both reports. By increasing their capital, these institutions can better support African countries. We achieve this in several ways—for example, by leveraging their creditworthiness to raise funds in international markets. This is why strong credit ratings are crucial: they allow these institutions to access cheaper financing than individual businesses can. When a business issues a Eurobond on its own, it often faces higher interest rates because it doesn’t have the same financial strength as a well-rated African bank. If Afreximbank goes to the international market to raise funds, it’s probably going to get bigger funds at better interest rates. But if a business that is not really as strong or is not well known tries to do that, they might not get any funding, or they will get funding with extremely huge restrictions or high interest that might make it impossible for them to survive. So instead, Afreximbank goes and raises those funds using its clout, gets them at better interest rates, and then can onlend to African businesses.

Afreximbank is essentially owned by African countries. We often engage these countries to encourage them to increase their support and shareholding in the bank. By doing so, we collectively strengthen the bank’s capital base, which ultimately benefits all of them. It’s like crowdfunding across African governments as we work to expand our shareholder base. We are actively working to increase our capital so we can lend more and better support African countries, helping to close the trade finance gap you mentioned. Innovation is at the heart of what we do—constantly finding new ways to overcome barriers. Our goal through innovation is to break down the longstanding restrictions, some rooted in centuries of history, that have held African countries back from achieving their full potential. We develop platforms specifically designed to reverse those challenges. So, when you look at the various platforms and initiatives Afreximbank has launched, they’re always aimed at solving a problem. We identify an issue, then create solutions to address and overcome it.

Take the PAPSS card, for example—it’s like bringing retail payments closer to everyday users. We’ve seen many people running online businesses from their homes across Africa who want to trade seamlessly. However, with some other cards issued by various platforms (I won’t mention names), users often face restrictions. Sometimes, when trying to make a purchase abroad, their card is blocked simply because the issuer doesn’t trust the country. This lack of trust prevents businesses from trading freely, leaving them stuck and unable to operate smoothly. Imagine you’ve built a home-based business and have been trading successfully with your customers, but suddenly you can’t trade anymore because someone decided to block, say, Nigerians from using their platform. That leaves you stuck. That’s why PAPSS created an African card—an African solution. With the PAPSS card, those kinds of restrictions don’t apply. You can continue trading freely without being blocked because of where you’re from. As I said before, we identify problems and innovate to develop solutions that resolve them.

Going forward, as we encounter new restrictions or challenges in advancing intra-African trade and development, we will keep innovating to overcome them. At the same time, we are exploring new ways to raise capital. For example, we’ve moved beyond traditional Eurobond markets and issued a Panda bond in China. We continue to look for new funding sources, including upcoming Eurobond issuances, and may look for other strategic partnerships. I’m not saying we are at risk, but we are open to exploring relationships with other regions of the world, such as the Middle East and beyond. Wherever we find credible partners and opportunities to raise funds, we will pursue them. Our goal is to secure the capital needed to support African countries in their development and help close the trade finance gap.

You mentioned earlier that debt sustainability remains a concern for many African countries. How is Afreximbank balancing the imperative to provide critical trade finance with the need to promote responsible borrowing and support macroeconomic stability across the continent?

We don’t give loans to businesses or countries recklessly. As a bank, we conduct thorough due diligence and assessments before lending. Even though we are a development institution, we operate like a bank—requiring the same assurances and safeguards. We hold preferred creditor status, which legally ensures that if a country defaults, we are prioritised for repayment. We carefully perform all necessary studies, analyses, and risk evaluations before providing capital to African countries or businesses. We have a comprehensive risk management system in place. It’s not that we simply hand out money without proper due diligence—we thoroughly assess every opportunity. The likelihood of default on loans we provide to businesses or governments is no higher than that faced by any other commercial bank because we follow the same strict rules and guidelines. The difference is that we don’t charge the same commercial rates, as our primary mandate is the development of African countries, not profit maximisation.

Let’s talk about preferred creditor status, which became something of a buzzword at the meeting. Why has it emerged as such a topical and contentious issue recently, and what is Afreximbank’s position on it? Secondly, how is the bank responding to its recent downgrade by Fitch, and what measures are being taken to address the concerns raised?

I would answer the last question by saying that the bank has an official communication on this matter, and I fully support that position. I won’t deviate from the official stance.

That said, even before the downgrade, I have expressed publicly, on many occasions, that I believe—this is not just about Fitch, but ratings in general—that many rating agencies unfairly assess African countries. This isn’t due to bias or dislike but rather a lack of understanding of how our economies function. I’ve had these discussions with rating agencies multiple times. Their methodologies are based on systems designed around different economic realities, which don’t always reflect the unique circumstances of African nations. Many of the criteria used by rating agencies don’t accurately apply to African countries, where economies operate independently and differently. As a result, these agencies often rate us unfairly lower, making it harder for us to access funding than necessary. I believe it’s time to revisit and adjust these methodologies. Why use the exact same criteria to rate the U.S. or European countries as you do African countries? We are at different stages of development with different economic structures. This has been my view for a long time, well before the recent controversy, and I stand by it.

Regarding preferred creditor status, it’s like borrowing money. For example, if I lend you $100, and then you have $120, preferred creditor status means I get my $100 back first, and the remaining $20 is then shared among your other creditors. That’s what preferred creditor status entails. This is a legal agreement you signed—you agreed to these terms. It’s not about bullying anyone; it’s a binding obligation that you must honour.

So, if you owe me first, then the other creditors who are sharing the remaining amount have to accept whatever is left, which in this case is $20. Let’s say you owe a total of $200, but you only have $120 to repay. You have to give Yemi $100 first because of his preferred creditor status. The other creditors want to share the entire $120 equally and say, “We’re all going to lose together.” But Yemi points out that both of you signed an agreement granting him preferred creditor status, so he must be paid his $100 first. That leaves only $20 left to be shared among the others. This means the other creditors will receive even less, but they want to combine their amounts and divide it equally. I’m sorry, but that’s not what we agreed to. I’m just trying to use simple examples, but it’s more complex than that. But my point is, it’s not a case of it’s not fair; it’s that you signed an agreement that this is what you need to do; you have to uphold that agreement. That’s all it is.

And the reason why there’s controversy is because African countries are owed some money. They don’t have enough money to pay back. They are discussing with their debtors. And now the debtors, because they see that they have to share a smaller amount, are trying to rope in those agencies that have preferred creditor status into their own pool. That’s why it’s creating controversy. I’m not trying to say the issue is simple—it’s actually quite complex. But to break it down simply: it’s not about fairness. When you sign an agreement, you agree to certain terms and must abide by the law and that contract. The controversy arises because some African countries owe money but don’t have enough to fully repay their debts. They are negotiating with their creditors. Now, some creditors who see their share shrinking are trying to include those with preferred creditor status in their own repayment pool. That’s what’s causing the current controversy. Preferred creditor status has been in place for years without any complaints—when everyone was able to repay their debts on time. The issues and noise only arise now because of the current debt challenges, with many struggling for funds. But no one has ever objected to the terms; everyone agreed to them. That’s the main reason for the controversy. As for how the bank is likely to address this, I’ll have to refer you to the official communication issued by the bank, which represents our position on this matter. Beyond that, I’m limited in what I can say. That is the bank’s official stance.

You’ve mentioned the growing attention around the proposed African credit rating agency. While you’ve explained the reasons behind it, how will the agency be structured to ensure credibility, transparency, and trust in the ratings it produces?

I’m not directly involved in setting it up, so I can’t say exactly how it will be done. However, if I were in charge, I believe it should be established with full transparency. To give you an example from my previous role at the National Bureau of Statistics—when I started, very few people trusted the data we produced, whether rightly or wrongly. So, I invited everyone to come in, observe our work, and see how we operate. That openness helped build credibility. I think adopting a similar transparent approach—explaining the methodology clearly and involving stakeholders throughout the process—would be key to building trust and credibility. Each item of the methodology is explained – that because we added this or we took this out because this is unique to the African experience. Once you disclose the rationale behind your methodology, people can see that it makes sense. And the same thing happens to methodology and data. You have to be able to communicate very carefully what you are trying to do. People have to understand why it makes sense. You have to be willing to sensitise everyone on the method that was used and why.

I believe that if you follow this transparent approach, people will understand why the methodology was designed the way it was. Over time, as the process is used and tested, trust will grow. For example, if I rate a company as unlikely to default and it indeed does not default—while other agencies predicted otherwise—people will start to trust my rating more. With repeated success, the methodology gains acceptance. But until then, it’s crucial to remain open and transparent, explaining every detail and educating as many stakeholders as possible. This helps dispel any fears of secrecy or underhanded practices behind the scenes.

Looking ahead, what key policy recommendations or collaborative initiatives is Afreximbank putting forward to help African economies not only withstand external shocks but also build more resilient, trade-driven growth over the medium to long term?

More trade finance, encouraging African countries to move from being exporters of raw materials to actually producing more finished goods. So, industrialisation.

So we can see that the bank is investing in special economic zones across the country. Try to plug the information asymmetry. You can see that we are setting up trade centres across specific parts of Africa, again, to help that as well.

Encouraging people to use the Pan-African payment system. We’re even making it more retail now. We’re developing cards so the corporates can use them. Encouraging individual African countries to do the same thing, encouraging more direct investment in Africa by African businesses. And like I said, making it easier for African countries to trade more with themselves. And on the global stage, more advocacy on African issues, putting our voice out there, fighting for Africa, ensuring that the rest of the world listens and introducing policies that are not punitive towards Africa but are beneficial to our overall long-term development.

As we look beyond 2025, what is your long-term vision for Afreximbank’s role in shaping Africa’s trade and economic future? And what gives you the greatest confidence that the continent is moving in the right direction?

My vision for Afreximbank is fully aligned with the bank’s official vision—I don’t see it as different. Our vision is clearly articulated in our mission and mandate, which guide everything we do at Afreximbank. As an African, I have immense confidence in our resilience, intelligence, and tenacity. Wherever Africans are placed in the world—whether Nigerians or others—they often excel and lead their fields. That speaks to our inherent strengths. The main challenge remains that we haven’t fully united and organised ourselves within the continent. But I am confident in our ability to drive change, leveraging our culture, resilience, and demographic advantage. We have abundant natural resources and exceptional talent. What’s left is to bring all these elements together, and I believe we will. I am optimistic and very confident about Africa’s future prospects.