Fuelling development in a greening world

As the world moves toward a carbon-neutral future, Africa finds itself at a critical junction: how to reconcile the urgent demand for economic development with the rising tide of climate action. This tension is most evident in the continent’s debate over natural gas as a transition fuel.

 “The success of this strategy lies in developing large-scale, continent-wide demand for gas, making it bankable for long-term investments.”

With over 625 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of proven natural gas reserves, nearly 15 percent of the global total, Africa holds what could be its most strategic energy asset. From this figure, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Nigeria possesses approximately 210.54 TCF of proven natural gas reserves as of January 1, 2025. This makes Nigeria the largest holder of natural gas reserves in Africa and the ninth-largest globally.

Meanwhile, international pressure, mostly from industrialised nations, insists that these resources must not become a long-term benefit. Climate envoy John Kerry, during his visit to Senegal, cautioned that any gas investments in Africa beyond a 10-year horizon risk becoming stranded assets. He meant, embrace renewables now or risk being left behind.

But is this a fair call for a continent still struggling with access to basic electricity? The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that more than 600 million Africans, about 72 percent of the global total without electricity, live in energy poverty. In Nigeria alone, the World Bank reports that 85 million people (43% of the population) lack access to grid electricity, costing the economy an estimated $26.2 billion yearly.

Given these figures, how can Africa justly transition when the very fuel that could bridge the energy gap is being discouraged?

The call for immediate green transition neglects a critical reality: Africa’s development trajectory is vastly different from that of the West. Nations like the US, Germany, and China achieved industrialisation by burning coal and oil for over a century. Now, the same pathway is being denied Africa, despite its minimal historical contribution to global emissions (less than 3%, while hosting nearly 20% of the global population).

Natural gas, often referred to as the cleanest fossil fuel, offers Africa a pragmatic middle ground. It emits about 50 percent less CO₂ than coal and significantly fewer particulates. Used well, it could power schools, hospitals, factories, and homes, creating a foundation for renewable energy integration rather than replacing it.

This argument is not a rejection of climate responsibility; it is a call for climate justice. The Russia-Ukraine war plainly showed global energy interdependence. When European nations scrambled to secure gas alternatives to Russian supplies, several African nations were approached as potential partners. But instead of leveraging this crisis to attract infrastructure investment, Africa largely missed the opportunity. Nigeria, for instance, with one of the largest gas reserves, has yet to maximise its export potential or domestic utility, even as its energy deficit widens.

The way forward requires intentional and coordinated action. Africa must first redefine how it engages in global climate dialogues. Rather than pleading for exceptions or reparations, African leaders must present gas as a rational, short- to medium-term transition fuel, backed by a well-articulated policy framework that integrates it into a broader green development strategy.

This further means building a continental consensus on gas as a transition tool under the African Union and other regional bodies; aligning gas development with the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA); and leveraging the $3.4 trillion potential market to underpin demand and justify investment in transnational gas infrastructure.

Moreover, formulating investment-ready models that link gas development to renewable targets, for example, proposing LPG adoption to reduce deforestation in exchange for development financing. Above all, positioning gas diplomatically as a tool for sustainable energy security rather than a dirty legacy fuel.

The tools are within reach, as the AfCFTA is a demonstration of what pan-African unity can accomplish. Its framework could be expanded to facilitate intra-African energy trade, including gas. The success of this strategy lies in developing large-scale, continent-wide demand for gas, making it bankable for long-term investments.

Read also:Top 10 African countries fueling natural gas demand in 2025

History also teaches that energy transitions are evolutionary, not revolutionary. The shift from coal to oil took over a century. Today’s global push toward renewables, though reasonable, will still require time, especially in infrastructure-deficient regions. From 2017 to 2022, global renewable capacity surged by 1,800 gigawatts, a leap compared to previous decades. Africa, however, contributed less than 3 percent of this capacity due to lack of funding and technology. In this context, natural gas must not be seen as a betrayal of climate goals but as a necessary step to achieving them sustainably.

As former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo put it, “If energy access issues are left unaddressed, we will continue to see growing energy demand being addressed with high-polluting and deforesting fuels such as diesel, kerosene, and firewood.”

Indeed, the continued use of biomass in rural Africa not only harms the environment but also threatens human health and biodiversity. Replacing it with gas would mark real progress, not regression.

The IEA estimates that achieving universal access to modern energy in Africa requires about $25 billion yearly, less than 1 percent of global energy investment and equivalent to the cost of a single major LNG terminal. Mobilising this funding is not a question of practicality; it is a question of will.

Africa must reject the choice between development and transition. The continent needs both, and gas, as a bridge fuel, can ensure one leads to the other. But this will not happen by mistake. It will require Africa to engage the world with a unified voice, armed with data, plans, and resolve, not just empty talk.