Nigeria’s oil sector received $16bn commitment in two years – NUPRC

Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas sector is luring investors, with more than $16 billion in investment commitments secured in just two years, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

This achievement comes on the back of far-reaching reforms and bold policy moves designed to reposition the sector for energy security, sustainability, and economic resilience.

Speaking at the 24th Nigerian Oil & Gas Energy Week in Abuja, Gbenga Komolafe, chief executive of NUPRC, declared that Nigeria is entering a new era of upstream investment, anchored on policy certainty, operational efficiency, and an ambitious production expansion agenda.

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Presidential Reforms Fuel Investment Surge

The landmark Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), signed into law in 2021, set the stage for regulatory clarity and investment confidence. However, it was the issuance of three pivotal Executive Orders in 2024, Order 40 (fiscal incentives), Order 41 (local content), and Order 42 (contracting efficiency), that catalysed this recent inflow of capital.

“These reforms have moved us from promise to performance,” Komolafe said. “Over $16 billion has been committed in just two years, a clear testament that Nigeria is now investment-ready.”

These investments span deepwater exploration, asset reactivation, gas development, and new evacuation infrastructure. They also reflect renewed interest from international oil companies (IOCs) and independents following years of underinvestment and operational bottlenecks.

Production Climb: 1 Million Barrels Initiative Gathers Steam

Central to Nigeria’s revival strategy is the “Project One Million Barrels” initiative, launched in 2024. It aims to raise daily crude oil output from 1.46 million barrels per day (bpd) to 2.5 million bpd by 2026. Komolafe revealed that production has already climbed to 1.7 million bpd, thanks to accelerated asset reactivation, faster approvals, and operational optimisations.

“We are not only talking growth; we are delivering it,” he said.

Key enablers include aggressive rig deployment, streamlined licensing, and targeted investments in evacuation infrastructure. To further safeguard production, 37 new crude evacuation routes have been approved, and the Advance Cargo Declaration System is being introduced to combat theft and improve export transparency.

Domestic Refining, Social Impact, and Digital Reforms

With Nigeria seeking to reduce its dependence on fuel imports, the NUPRC is enforcing the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO), ensuring local refineries receive consistent feedstock. This effort aligns with the operations of the 650,000 bpd Dangote refinery, which is emerging as a central player in Nigeria’s energy ecosystem.

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On the community front, the rollout of the HostComply platform is enhancing transparency and ensuring tangible benefits for oil-producing communities, helping maintain social licence to operate. Simultaneously, the Commission’s full-scale digital transformation is accelerating regulatory timelines, reducing bureaucracy, and making Nigeria more attractive to investors.

Green Growth: Gas, Decarbonisation, and Carbon Markets

In response to global climate imperatives, Nigeria is implementing a gas-centric energy transition strategy. Under the “Decade of Gas” initiative, the country is building out LNG infrastructure, deploying floating LNG units, and pursuing cross-border pipeline projects.

Notably, the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP) and the Presidential CNG Initiative aim to eliminate routine flaring by 2030 and cut methane emissions by 60% by 2031. These efforts are expected to unlock thousands of green jobs and position Nigeria as a regional gas hub.

The country is also making headway in upstream decarbonisation. The NUPRC has launched an emissions tracking and reporting framework, alongside a carbon market ecosystem that allows producers to monetise emissions reductions. March 18 has now been designated as Nigeria’s Upstream Decarbonisation Day, with an annual forum to track progress and foster collaboration.

Continental Vision: Africa-Wide Energy Integration

Beyond national ambitions, Nigeria is leading continental efforts to integrate African energy markets. Through the AFRIPERF platform, the NUPRC is working on regulatory harmonisation, infrastructure interoperability, and cross-border financing, in partnership with the newly established Africa Energy Bank.

“We are not just building a stronger Nigerian upstream; we are building a stronger African energy future,” Komolafe said.

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Next Steps: De-risking, Licensing, and Accountability

Looking ahead, the Commission plans to accelerate exploration in frontier basins, expand competitive licensing rounds, and maintain strict enforcement of flare reduction and emissions compliance.

Operators that fail to meet NGFCP obligations have already faced regulatory sanctions. “We will not allow unwilling producers to hold Nigeria back,” Komolafe stated firmly.

A Call to Investors

In closing, the NUPRC chief echoed President Bola Tinubu’s rallying call to the global investment community: “Nigeria must not only be open for business—it must be irresistible.”

With $16 billion already committed and more reforms in the pipeline, Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas sector appears to be regaining its status as a leading destination for energy investment in Africa.

“The foundation has been laid,” Komolafe concluded. “Let us turn our vast energy potential into enduring performance.”